We want to predict the future. We want to tell you the winner before the first serve. We want to use historical data to predict future outcomes…or at least better than we currently do.
If we point score at a higher rate than our opponent, we win right? This coaching thing is easy…
If PS% isn’t the answer, maybe we can use attacking to predict the future.
At least attacking can explain the past…
Is passing a 2.2 always a 2.2?
When’s the last time we evaluated the metrics themselves?
But can he get on base?
Find efficiencies for all attack outcomes, not just the kills, blocks, and errors.
What we expect from the attacker should differ based on the quality of the situation the attacker is dealt.
Results minus Expectations. Did you increase or decrease our ability to win the rally?
How do we set up input and output situations for other skills?
Not as complicated as you might think. Let me help you.
What is Expected Value?! What is Win Probability?! Everybody panic!!
A somewhat obvious look at how attacking better than your opponent leads to bigger butt kickings…
Step 12: Point Win Probability
Given any point in the rally, who’s in the better position to win?