step 4: passer ratings

So. Where do we start? We know that passing is important, but does it predict the future? Man...I hope so. That would save me some steps. 0.5 Just for reference, I've created a passer rating in the data that's built as follows: Top to bottom: perfect, pretty good, medium, poor, no attack/overpass, error 1. Let's [...]

step 3.5: attack efficiency does explain the past

To be fair, predicting the past is easier. It's already happened. We're just looking for which metrics help explain something that has already happened. To it's credit, attack efficiency differences between two teams in a single set is wildly indicative of who won that set. So yes, we do care about attack efficiency, definitely don't [...]

step 1: what’s the point?

Predicting the future is difficult. People get the future wrong all the time. Coaches miss on recruits, GMs miss on draft picks, and bettors lose money. So are they just horrible at prediction? Or is prediction really difficult? You'd think with the resources of big franchises, clubs, etc - coupled with the embarrassing ramifications of [...]

Efficiency Change Refresher

So here's the concept: we want to evaluate each touch by the difference between expectations and results. Input Contact: this serves as the expectation - given the situation you've been dealt, how well do we expect you to do? Output Contact: this serves as the result - looking at both terminal & non-terminal results Serving, [...]

Harker – Serve/Rec/Atk Efficiency

Because I'm on a roll with the R Shiny web app stuff, I figured I'd make another. This one allows you to look at how each player is trending throughout the season in their serve, receive, or attacking stats. Harker - Serve/Rec/Atk Efficiency!! For serving, we look at the outcome of the serve (different reception [...]

Harker – Attacking Effect Size

So. Made my first Shiny web app using R and feeling pretty good right now. It's not sexy by any means - and really only displays 4 different plots that are pre-made, but it's still super cool compared to the absolutely nothing I had built before this. You can check it out by clicking here: Harker [...]

Harker – Efficiency Change

Haven't posted anything in a while, so thought I'd throw out an update on the Harker season as we've played about 70% of our matches so far. For those who aren't familiar with Efficiency Change, it is the idea of looking at the result you get, minus the input/the hand you were dealt. For attacking, [...]