2022 NCAA Tournament – The Finals

Many thanks as always to Professor Dwight Wynne for the win probability math and match charts!!

national championship match:

Texas opened the match with a 72% chance to win. After taking the first set, this improved to 84%. After going ahead 2-0 after a second set beatdown of 25-14, Texas had a 95% win probability. Louisville’s best chance of winning at 3-0 in the first set when they were up to 35% chance to win – it was all downhill after that…


Texas vs. Louisville – we have Texas at 72% Win Probability

  • Texas has reached the championship, giving themselves a +35% boost from pre-tournament levels
  • Louisville reaching the finals gives them a +18% boost compared to the start of the tournament
2021 NCAA Tournament Round by Round (2)


Louisville def. Pitt (3-2). As we saw, this was a great battle…until it wasn’t. Louisville in strong command in the 4th when they went up 22-20, but gave up the next 5 points to slip into a 5th set. Luckily, they relocated their mojo in the deciding set, switching sides at 8-0, and punching their ticket to the finals with an outlier of a score, 15-2.

Texas def. USD (3-1). After dropping the first set, Texas immediately found their stride, cruising in the next 3 sets, -16, -18, -20. Even after losing the first, Texas was still the 60% favorite, which steadily rose despite slow starts in sets 2 and 4.

final four:


Louisville vs. Pitt – we have Louisville at 62% Win Probability

Texas vs. USD – we have Texas at 78% Win Probability

  • Texas has a 57% chance of winning the title, up from pre-tournament levels of 36.9% (+20.1 boost)
  • Louisville with a 22.9% Title chance, up by +13 points from pre-tournament levels of 9.9%
  • USD and Pitt at 11% and 9% respectively, up +6-7 points from pre-tournaments levels.

elite eight:

Pitt def. Wisconsin (3-2). Great battle in the Fieldhouse and a tough upset win for the ACC underdogs. Wild 5th set with Wisconsin going down 6-11 (only a 7.3% Win Probability at this point), battling back to take the lead 12-11 (up to 70.2% Win Prob), but ultimately losing the next 3 points in a row for a 13-15 final score. Wisconsin’s highest Win Probability came at 3-0 in the 2nd set when they peaked at 88.2%. Pitt will face Louisville in an ACC showdown which favors the Cardinals at a slight margin (62% Win Prob).

Texas def. Ohio State (3-1). Texas enjoyed mostly smooth sailing in round 4, despite dropping set 2. They rallied back and won the 3rd, 25-13 and eventually the match. Texas has been our favorite to win it all for a while – we’ll see if they’re able to maintain their dominance as they face USD Thursday night where the Longhorns are strongly favored (78% Win Prob).

Louisville def. Oregon (3-2). In another thrilling 5-setter, Oregon gave Louisville a run for their money, even peaking with an 88.6% chance to win the match when they went up 23-21 in the 4th set. Louisville battled back to take the set 27-25 and then ran away with set 5. Louisville faces ACC foe, Pitt, in their Final Four matchup where the Cardinals are favored at a 62% Win Prob.

USD def. Stanford (3-2). In the last match of the evening, USD and Stanford traded sets all the way to the 5th. Stanford had a 91% chance to win the match when they went up 22-20 in set 4, but were unable to close that one out. The 5th set was close, until it wasn’t. Stanford and USD battled tight up through 9-9, when the floodgates opened and USD was able to rattle of the final 6 points in a row, taking the 5th, 15-9. USD now faces the betting favorite, Texas in their Final Four matchup on Thursday. We have Texas favored to win this match at a 78% likelihood in our simulations.

Pre-Tournament Win Probabilities:

2022 NCAA Tournament Predictions

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