2022 VolleyDork Weekly Rankings + Match Predictions

This marks our second season of our new rating system [link to the rating system explainer post]. Our goal will be to update these rankings every Monday / Tuesday.

First and foremost, huge thanks to Professor Dwight Wynne for doing the heavy lifting and getting this system off the ground. I’m excited to see the predictive power of this work and how it can influence downstream metrics that rely on team / opponent strength to set appropriate expectations.

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Weekly Rankings

Rankings will be updated Monday/Tuesday…ish each week after factoring in the latest results. These rankings are driven primarily by a team’s point scoring percentage (points won while serving) combined with their given opponent’s current rating.

Weekly Rankings Dashboard

Weekly Rankings

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Weekly Match Predictions

Using the rankings calculated in the first section, we are able to leverage the volleysim package designed by Dwight Wynne and Ben Raymond. This package takes a variety of inputs to run simulated matches, aggregate the outcomes, and summarize the findings to reveal predicted winners. In our case, we focus on Point Scoring % (likelihood to score a point when you serve) as the main input to the simulations. We export the results to our Tableau dashboard and you can scroll through various matchups from each week.

Here are all the games this week featuring two teams with ratings over 2000 (top 50…ish of the rankings), as well as our Predicted Winners and Expected Match Win Probability. Quick reminder that these are probabilities, not guarantees – a Win Probability of 70% means that during our simulations, the team lost 30% of the time.

Weekly Match Predictions Dashboard

Weekly Predictions

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Predictions at the Game level

For those who want a little more detail about the predictions – or are looking for an edge in their favorite VolleyTalk polls – here is a breakdown of our predictions at the set-level.

Weekly Match Predictions (Games) Dashboard

Weekly Predictions - Games

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Results of our Predictions

For some reason, not much attention is paid to whether predictions come true. But without looking at the accuracy of our claims, how would we know if we’re actually predicting the future?

Week by Week Prediction Results (2021 season to Present)

Weekly Results