Predicting the future is difficult. People get the future wrong all the time. Coaches miss on recruits, GMs miss on draft picks, and bettors lose money. So are they just horrible at prediction? Or is prediction really difficult? You’d think with the resources of big franchises, clubs, etc – coupled with the embarrassing ramifications of making a mistake – that they’d have this figured out by now.
But predicting the future is different than forecasting the future. Think: “it will rain” vs. “there’s a 60% chance of rain” – or “Clinton will beat Trump in 2016” vs. “there’s a 70% chance Hillary will win“
So when we turn to volleyball, what are we trying to do? As coaches, we’re trying to maximize the likelihood that we win the set. From the analytical side, we’re trying to play in a way that statistically represents the best way to win the set. Well, that simply means Point Scoring (winning the point when serving) at a higher rate than your opponent – you do that, you win.
And now, the rubber hits the road. “Alright guys, let’s get out there and point score at a higher rate than those chumps on the other side!”
Coaching is easy. Step 2.