Was just messing around with some numbers this afternoon and wanted to share.
I looked at a few things related to serving, specifically serve error%, point score%, and serve output efficiency. I ran some correlations between these stats and themselves as well as with winning the set overall.
As with my last post, I'm only using data from the top 9 in the Big Ten from 2016 so the calculated efficiencies are based on these matches alone.
Serve error% and winning the set came out to -0.150, pretty weak – and a disappointment to parents and fans everywhere who'd like nothing more than for you to quit missing your damn serves.
Winning the set and serve output eff (like pass rating but using the actual efficiencies off each possible serve outcome) clocked in at 0.323
And serve error% and serve output eff correlated at -0.546, the highest result I found. This seems to reiterate that terminal contacts skew performance ratings. So quit missing your damn serve! but at the same time, it's unlikely you'll have missed serves to blame on their own for losing a set.
Point score% and serve output eff came in at 0.474, which makes a lot of sense – it would be interesting to see if serve output eff is the largest factor in whether you point score or not.
Finally, because everyone likes service errors, I did SE% and point score% which resulted in -0.220. Again, pretty mild – suggesting that while the association is negative, as we'd expect, teams can still point score well even if they're missing some serves.
Anyway, just wanted to jot these numbers down before they get lost in a notebook somewhere.