2021 NCAA Tournament Predictions

December 7th: Updated predictions moving into the Sweet Sixteen are live To track changes in predictions, we added a second sheet. This sheet highlights the change in predicted likelihood of making the next round, as compared to our pre-tournament predictions. For example, the model doesn't love Pitt and only gave them a 47% chance of [...]

Expectation vs. Reality

Interactive Dashboard: https://public.tableau.com/views/Expectationvs_Reality/Overall?:language=en&:display_count=y&publish=yes&:origin=viz_share_link This is the direction I think the sport of volleyball needs to go - getting all skills, all contacts, all situations, and all performance evaluation into the single language of points. The same way the NBA has expected points per shot based on the location on the floor + number of defenders, [...]

step 6: if he’s a good hitter, why doesn’t he hit good?

% split of Terminal vs. Non-Terminal attacks 1. Welcome to attacking: the most important skill in our game. I'd also argue it's the most interesting, least understood, and most dynamic of our game - making it the best place to pick some low-hanging fruit. 2. We need to understand the reality of attacking. As you [...]

VolleyDork Rankings: How They Work

Motivation While trying to adjust our expected points (PWP) model to account for team and opponent strength, we ran into a few issues. As far as we could tell, the only analytics-based rating system out there was the Pablo rankings, and we wanted ratings that (1) are not paywalled, (2) can be reproduced by other [...]

Guest Post: Dwight Wynne – Match Win Probabilities

Dwight Wynne teaches statistics at California State University, Fullerton and supervises student projects helping their women's volleyball team get more out of their data. Introduction One tool that has become increasingly common in the modern consumption of sports analytics is a win probability graph. A win probability graph shows, given the current score and time [...]

Season Trends

Madeline Gates - 2019 Stanford University Interactive Dashboard: https://public.tableau.com/views/SeasonTrends/HittingEfficiency?:language=en&:display_count=y&publish=yes&:origin=viz_share_link Is your team getting better or worse as the season progresses? Are your players developing and performing stronger as the year goes on? In the chart above, we take a look at Madeline Gates, the middle from Stanford. We're looking at a rolling average of her [...]